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--- urban-legend-i-think-there-world-market-maybe-five-computers [2026/03/08 03:21] – cynic
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+====== Urban legend: I think there is a world market for maybe five computers ======
+{{ :ibm_electronic_data_processing_machine.jpg?400|}}
+An internet search of the phrase "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"  will produce dozens of websites claiming those were the words of IBM Chairman Thomas Watson.
+As a kid growing up before the age of the internet, I relied on encyclopedias and almanacs to learn about inventors and inventions. As an adult teaching people how to use the internet I hung on many internet forums looking to learn more and dig deeper. At times what I found shocked me.
+The internet does as much to create history, as it does to document history.
+The quote is often listed as one of the biggest epic fail statements of all times. We searched the net trying to find the source of the quote, and the verification that the statement was made by IBM Chairman Thomas Watson.
+Many websites often have the date 1943 attached to the quote, as was the case of a slide we found on the Microsoft website, and as it is presented on a page for the PBS television show Nova. Even a UK website for The Centre for Computing History has the quote listed as: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
+For all the dozens of websites that list the quote attributed to IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, none of the websites have any information on the primary source or circumstances of the quote.
+I've seen various websites come up with explanations of the quote. When I checked Wikipedia, they had their own spin on the origin of the quote. When I first posted this page here on GeekHistory I used a source from IBM to debunk the myth. If you are looking for the origin of something allegedly said by an IBM chairman, why not start at IBM.
+Searching IBM websites and online IBM documents turned up an IBM FAQ history document that directly addresses the mythology of the quote. The IBM document poses the question, "Did Thomas Watson say in the 1950s that he foresaw a market potential for only five
+electronic computers?"
+IBM offers the following explanation:
+//"We believe the statement that you attribute to Thomas Watson is a misunderstanding of remarks made at IBM’s annual stockholders meeting on April 28, 1953. In referring specifically and only to the IBM 701 Electronic Data Processing Machine -- which had been introduced the year before as the company’s first production computer designed for scientific calculations -- Thomas Watson, Jr., told stockholders that “IBM had developed a paper plan for such a machine and took this paper plan across the country to some 20 concerns that we thought could use such a machine. I would like to tell you that the machine rents for between $12,000 and $18,000 a month, so it was not the type of thing that could be sold from place to place. But, as a result of our trip, on which we expected to get orders for five machines, we came home with orders for 18.”//
+Could the phrase, "we expected to get orders for five machines" from the 1953 stockholders meeting morph into the now infamous phrase, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
+**IBM quote debunked**
+There is so much on the internet based on myths and legends. Some people question how much of the internet is a place that documents history, and how much of the internet is a place that writes and recreates history.  When "famous quotes" such as "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"  get repeated over and over, it becomes accepted as fact, even if no one can cite the original source.  After all, if you can find the quote attributed to IBM Chairman Thomas Watson on the Microsoft and PBS website, it must be true!
+Thomas Watson was one of the richest men of his time, a leading self-made businessmen and often called one of the world's greatest salesmen. If there was a time and place where Watson made the statement, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers," it would be logical to assume there would be some record of it.
+Considering the lack of primary sources for the quote, no speeches, articles, or recordings from 1943, there's no reason not to believe IBM's official FAQ debunking it as a misunderstanding.
+Perhaps those who still believe IBM Chairman Thomas Watson made the statement in 1943 will point to some vast conspiracy or cover up.  Without a credible source of when the alleged quote was made we can only conclude it is an urban legend, not a factual statement.
+**A bit of IBM history**
+To clarify the roles of Thomas J. Watson Sr. and Thomas J. Watson Jr. in the context of the famous "maybe five computers" quote and the surrounding IBM history, here's a clear breakdown. The myth often gets pinned on the wrong person, usually Thomas J. Watson Sr. in 1943, while the real context ties to Thomas J. Watson Jr. around 1953.
+In 1943, Thomas J. Watson Sr. was firmly in charge as CEO. IBM was deeply involved in wartime production for the U.S. military and allies, focusing on electromechanical tabulators, scales, and time clocks, not electronic computers. There is no evidence exists of Watson Sr. making any statement about the market for computers in 1943, or any year.
+In 1953, at IBM's annual stockholders' meeting on April 28, 1953, Watson Jr., as president, discussed the IBM 701, their first commercial scientific computer, announced publicly in 1952. Watson Jr. described pitching a paper plan for the machine to about 20 potential customers. IBM expected maybe 5 orders but secured 18. The machine rented for $12,000 to $18,000 per month, super huge money then, aimed at massive, specialized uses like atomic research or military simulations.
+So the 'five computers' line? It's not a wild underestimate from Watson Sr., it's a mangled version of Watson Jr's realistic sales forecast for one big, room-sized machine in the early computer dawn."
+**Why It Matters Today**
+The quote endures because it's a perfect anecdote for tech talks, books, and TED-style presentations about innovation's unpredictability. Myths persist and they make good anecdotes for stories about entrepreneurs.
+Dig deeper, trust less, in a world with billions of devices, the real market is for debunking Urban legends.
+----
+{{ youtube>Kbtr88NL9GQ |IBM: The Fake ‘Five Computers’ Quote That Fit the Story Too Well}}
+----
+**IBM: The Story People Believed | The trilogy is complete.**
+**[[IBM-The-Story-People-Believed | IBM: The Story People Believed ]]**

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The collection of material for the study of geek history dates back to my early days in technology as far back as the 1970s. You will find specific footnotes and references on many pages with links to current websites. Anytime a claim is made, or a fact is stated from a website or blog that does not appear to have firsthand knowledge of the subject I make a note to follow up on it. I can assure you that anything I have written is based on verification of facts from a source as close to the events and individuals as possible or multiple sources of information from leading publications or references.

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